May 16th, 2022
I had a shower thought today. 

Disruption happens a lot differently (and more slowly) than we think.

For example, think about disruption in the newspaper industry by the internet:

Newspapers didn’t immediately go online once the internet was created. Rather, blogs and websites started cropping up, and slowly people started getting their news from the internet.

This adoption took years. Once the shift already happened, the newspapers finally went online. But it was too late. Only a complete shift in business model  would allow them to survive.

The next big industries to get disrupted are healthcare and education.

And I think the same thing will happen in healthcare.

Doctors and hospitals aren’t going to adopt new technologies. They have no incentive to. Their system works just fine right now.

But, just like the newspaper industry, people will find new, better, and more convenient ways of getting health care.

For example, the Apple watch can track many of your vitals. And Levels can analyze your blood. You can get prescriptions online. You can see doctors online. WebMD. The list goes on.

Slowly, these methods will become more popular than going to the doctor / hospital. Health care costs will go down for the average person. 

The profits will be sucked out of the healthcare industry. Only then will the hospitals and administrators realize they need to adopt these new technologies to survive as a business. 

But it will be too late, just like the newspapers. With their business model (massive fixed costs), they won’t be able to make it work.

The same will happen in education. We won’t replace traditional college. But less people will go every year. Thousands of apps, websites, and platforms will replace traditional education (Starter Story being one of them).

Colleges will try to implement these new technologies, but it will be too late.